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Cash or market?

Compare an entered savings APY with a hypothetical investment return without pretending the larger projection is automatically the better home.

4 minutesYou'll need: An amount, monthly deposit, time horizon, savings APY, and hypothetical returnNothing you type leaves your browser

Working sketchINPUT → RESULT
Cash certainty, savings interest, and a hypothetical market path share one horizon.

Starting example. These made-up figures are here to make the calculator readable. Edit any field; this working copy is not saved.

Start here: replace the example figures with yours, read the main result, then change one number at a time to see what matters most.

Enter the rate you can actually verify

Not an S&P 500 forecast

7y

The arithmetic—not the verdict

In 7 years, the entered APY models $69,512 in savings and the hypothetical market return models $77,656. The $8,144 gap is a projection—not a recommendation.
A higher projected balance does not make cash or savings unnecessary. Each path protects against a different kind of risk.
Cash principal
$57,000deposits only
Savings · 4.5% APY
$69,512
Market · 7.0% hypothetical
$77,656

At the end of 7 years, cash is $57,000, savings is $69,512, and the hypothetical market path is $77,656.

Cash on hand

No modeled interest

AccessImmediate

Risk & purposeNo market loss; purchasing power can erode. Current obligations and money moving soon.

Interest-bearing savings

Entered APY

AccessUsually ready access; verify account terms

Risk & purposeNo market loss in an insured deposit account within coverage rules. Reserves and near-term goals.

Diversified market scenario

Hypothetical annual return

AccessSellable, but value may be down when needed

Risk & purposePrincipal can fall; no return is guaranteed. Money with a sufficiently long and flexible horizon.

What changes the answer

The entered rates create the balance gap. The time horizon determines whether that gap deserves much weight: money needed on a fixed date has less room to recover from a market decline.

Use an APY from a real account disclosure. Keep the market number hypothetical and test a negative return before treating the upside as available.

These calculators are educational estimates based on the numbers and assumptions you enter. Real results vary, and projections are not guarantees. Nothing here is personalized investment, tax, or legal advice.

See the assumptions behind this estimate

What the calculator assumes

  • Savings APY and the hypothetical market return are effective annual rates applied through equivalent monthly rates.
  • The same starting amount and end-of-month deposits are used for every path.
  • Cash is modeled with no interest so the contribution base remains visible.

What it leaves out

  • The market path is smooth math, not a forecast of the S&P 500 or a simulation of real volatility.
  • Bank fees, taxes, inflation, fund expenses, account restrictions, and deposit-insurance ownership categories are omitted.

An estimate is a starting point. Test the assumption doing the most work, then take the next question in order.

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